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HEO Civil and Family Court Forecasting

Ministry of Justice, Leeds

HEO Civil and Family Court Forecasting

£35335-£37847

Ministry of Justice, Leeds

  • Full time
  • Temporary
  • Remote working

Posted 3 days ago, 31 Oct | Get your application in today.

Closing date: Closing date not specified

Job ref: 450d018ad6664827a3e610d7751d9f3e

Location ref: Leeds

Full Job Description

  • Flexible working arrangements and a focus on equality of opportunity - including welcoming part-time and/or job-share arrangements, compressed hours, working from home or your nearest Justice Collaboration Centres or Justice Satellite Office.
  • Career development - regular development and promotion opportunities across a wide range of roles, career development support, with a generous individual learning and development budget.
  • Range of new areas of work and new tools and techniques - we pride ourselves on our excellent deployment of well-established analytical methods, but also our progress to date. Progress such as our ambitious and innovative transformation programme to leverage departmental data and drive evidence-based decision-making using cutting-edge tools and techniques (for example: experimentation, personalisation, artificial intelligence).
  • Analysis is at the centre of the Department's decision making - our transformation programme is focused on maximising our impact on departmental outcomes. The Ministry of Justice's Senior Team and our Ministerial Team want all decisions to be evidence driven - your analysis will be key in influencing decisions and real-world impact.
  • Vibrant community - part of a multidisciplinary team that has a supportive culture and is looking to further develop the community with the help of everyone.
  • See the frontline and what your work is influencing - regular opportunities to visit our front-line service providers, including courts, prisons, and probation to better understand the areas your analysis is affecting.
    • 3. What you'll do Background This role is based in the Fee and Fine Forecasting Team, within the Civil, Family, OPG & Income Modelling team, in the wider Justice System Modelling Team (Analysis Directorate). The team forecast Civil and Family court demand and court fee income along with Criminal fine income; this accounts for over £1.4 billion of MoJ income each year. The income forecasts are used to set the departmental budget, for Spending Reviews and allocations. The court demand forecasts are used by HMCTS analytical and operational teams to plan and resource the courts effectively., The post is a great development opportunity for anyone interested in building their skills in forecasting techniques, especially in statistical time series modelling such as Holt-Winters and ARIMA. There is also lots of scope to develop R and SQL skills. The post holder will have support, working with a G7 and SEO in the team, to get up to speed quickly with the modelling and monitoring processes. This will include updating the forecasts twice a year and reviewing the modelling approach for improvements. The team provide regular updates to senior stakeholders in MoJ/HMCTS Finance and HMCTS Operations to explain how forecasts are performing and have changed, so there's plenty of opportunity to develop your skills in communicating complex analysis clearly and with impact. This requires in-depth understanding of the drivers of court demand, including uncertainty and risks to the forecasts, so the role involves working collaboratively with teams across Data, Analysis and HMCTS Operations to build a comprehensive knowledge of the operational areas and data limitations. There is plenty of scope for innovation within this role, whether to improve on the automation of data and monitoring processes or investigating ways to improve the modelling and mitigate the risks to the forecasts. Main Activities/Responsibilities The job holder will be required to undertake the following duties and responsibilities:
  • Update Civil and Family demand and income forecasts twice a year and present these to the senior governance group for sign-off.
  • Monitor the forecast performance, producing and disseminating monthly analysis to update stakeholders.
  • Review forecasting techniques and implement improvements to the modelling.
  • Gather and disseminate intelligence about drivers of court demand, including operational and policy changes, that may impact the precision of the forecasting., Your Statement of Suitability should be no more than 750 words and should give us examples of how your skills and experience match those needed for this role. Consider giving examples that cover all the requirements in the 'Who you are' section and use work you have completed to demonstrate how you meet each one.
    • 5a. Application Process There will be an initial sift of applicants through comparing submitted evidence against the 'Who you are' bullets. This usually takes two weeks, depending on the number of applications. Those who make it through the initial sift will be invited to a Civil Service Success Profile interview. In the Civil Service we use Success Profiles to help us find the right person for the job. We will be using a mixture of methods to assess your abilities, strengths, experience, technical skills, and behaviours. We highly recommend learning about Success Profiles and using the Situation, Task, Action, Result and Reflection (STARR) framework when structuring your answers. The highest scoring candidates that pass the interview will be offered the roles. The whole process can take up to a month. 5b. Interview Process You will be assessed against the Civil service success profiles framework at interview stage:
  • Communicating and Influencing
  • Managing a Quality Service
  • Working Together
    • Please also refer to the CS Behaviours framework for more details at this grade. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/717275/CS_Behaviours_2018.pdf For existing analysts from all professions, as well as the three civil service behaviours stated above, you will be assessed on two sets of professional competencies at interview. For unbadged candidates within the Civil Service, as well as the three civil service behaviours stated above, you will be assessed on your analytical knowledge, experience and abilities, and the impact of your analytical work., The MoJ offers Hybrid Working arrangements where business need allows. This is an informal, non-contractual form of flexible working that blends working from your base location, different MoJ sites and / or from home (please be aware that this role can only be worked in the UK and not overseas). All employees will be expected to spend a minimum of 60% of their working time in an office, subject to local estate capacity. Some roles will not be suitable for Hybrid Working. Similarly, Hybrid Working will not suit everyone's circumstances. Arrangements will be discussed and agreed with the successful candidate(s) and subject to regular review. For nationally advertised roles: All successful candidates will be appointed to the nearest viable office nearest to their home postcode and on its respective pay scale. This will be at either a HQ building (subject to desk allocation, a Justice Collaboration Centre (JCC) or a Justice Satellite Office (JSO) - See Map. All employees will be expected to spend a minimum of 60% of their working time in an office, subject to local estate capacity). For current MoJ employees, your base location will need to be changed to the nearest viable office (to your home postcode), either at a HQ building, JCC or JSO within the National Office Network and moved its location's respective pay scale (any legacy arrangements/locations will need to be amended). Some of MoJ's terms and conditions of service are changing as part of Civil Service reform. The changes will apply to staff joining MoJ who are new to the Civil Service. Staff joining MoJ from other civil service employers will transfer onto the new MoJ terms if they are already on 'modernised' terms in their current post or onto 'unmodernised' MoJ terms if they are on 'unmodernised' terms at their current post. Details will be available if an offer is made. MoJ candidates who are on a specialist grade, will be able to retain their grade on lateral transfer. All candidates who are currently in receipt of Mark Time / Pay Protection should ensure they are familiar with the new policy on permanent and temporary promotion which can be found on the employee intranet. Flexible working hours The Ministry of Justice offers a flexible working system in many offices. Standard full time working hours are 37 hours per week. MoJ welcomes part-time, flexible and job-sharing working patterns, where they meet the demands of the role and business needs. All applications for part-time, flexible and job-sharing working patterns will be considered in accordance with the MoJ's Flexible Working policy., As a Disability Confident employer, MoJ are committed to providing everyone with the opportunity to demonstrate their skills, talent and abilities, by making adjustments throughout all elements of the recruitment process and in the workplace. MoJ are able to offer an interview to disabled candidates who meet the minimum selection criteria, except in a limited number of campaigns. You will be able to request reasonable adjustments to the recruitment process within the application form. If you need additional help completing the application form, please contact the TBS Recruitment Enquiries Team. For more information on applying for a role as a candidate with a disability or long-term condition, please watch our animated videos. Diversity & Inclusion The Civil Service is committed to attract, retain and invest in talent wherever it is found. To learn more please see the Civil Service People Plan and the Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Strategy. Redeployment Interview Scheme Civil Service departments are expected to explore redeployment opportunities before making an individual redundant. The MoJ is committed, as part of the Redeployment Interview Scheme, to providing opportunities to those who are 'at risk of redundancy'. MoJ is able to offer an interview to eligible candidates who meet the minimum selection criteria, except in a limited number of campaigns. Candidates will not be eligible for the Redeployment Interview Scheme if they are applying on promotion., Your Statement of Suitability should be no more than 750 words and should give us examples of how your skills and experience match those needed for this role. Consider giving examples that cover all the requirements in the 'Who you are' section and use work you have completed to demonstrate how you meet each one. Evidence of Experience CV or Work History, Experience Questions, Statement of SuitabilityInterview stage assessments Interview Dates Expected From Dec 2026 Behaviours Communicating and Influencing Managing a Quality Service Working Together Technical Professional Competency (1) Knowledge & Skills GSS - Data Analysis. GORS - Knowledge and application of OR Skills and Techniques. GES - Analysis of Data. Professional Competency (2) Influence & Impact GSS - Presenting and disseminating data effectively. GORS - Achieving impact with analysis. GES - Effective communication.Other Assessments Which assessment methods will be used? Presentation Level of security checks required Baseline Personnal Security Standard (BPSS)

    Do you have the passion, values, and ability to help us solve the biggest problems of the justice system?, Candidates must be able to show the relevant experience and skills and must meet the criteria for entry: HEO grade - must meet at least one of the following: 1. You possess a numerate degree or a degree that has an analytical, statistical or research element, with a 2:2 or above, or as a higher degree (e.g. MSc, PhD). 2. Alternatively, you have significant experience evidencing use of data and/or analytical skills (outside of a part-completed Civil Service degree apprenticeship)., Strong technical and analytical ability:
  • Experience of manipulating large complex datasets;
  • Applying complex analytical techniques to generate insights;
  • Proficiency in R and Excel.
    • Application of analytical methods:
  • Ability to bring together a wide range of insight and data, drawing evidence-based conclusions that drive model development and analysis.
    • Communicating and Influencing:
  • Have good written and oral communication and interpersonal skills.
  • Have the ability to produce clear and impactful visualisations to communicate analytical insights.
  • Be able to explain data and analytical concepts to technical and non-technical stakeholders, including senior leaders.
    • Managing a quality service:
  • Have the ability to manage stakeholder needs and deliver an organised programme of analysis and modelling.
    • Working Together:
  • Have the skills to work collaboratively with both technical and non-technical colleagues.
  • Ability to look beyond the immediate work area to identify opportunities where analysis and stakeholder engagement could add value.
    • The following experience and skills are desirable:
  • Previous experience of quantitative modelling and/or forecasting techniques, in particular statistical time series techniques such as Holt-Winters and ARIMA.
  • Experience of SQL to manipulate and derive insights from large data sets., Your work history should meet the following criteria: well structured, succinct, and written in clear language., GSS - Data Analysis.
  • GORS - Knowledge and application of OR Skills and Techniques.
  • GES - Analysis of Data.
    • Professional Competency (2) Influence & Impact
  • GSS - Presenting and disseminating data effectively.
  • GORS - Achieving impact with analysis.
  • GES - Effective communication.

    We welcome applications from candidates based across the UK. Candidates will have the option of being based in the Leeds or London HQ offices (with flexible working arrangements available) or your nearest Justice Collaboration Centre or Justice Satellite Office: see this map for more details.
    • Alternative locations may be available and will be discussed and agreed on the completion of background checks. Interviews are likely to take place in December 2026 and will be held via MS Teams. We will keep a merit list for a year for those who successfully pass the interview board but who are not offered a post. 2. About the Analysis Directorate We are passionate about improving justice outcomes through innovative research, data and analysis. In the Analysis Directorate, we provide high quality data and analysis helping to ensure strategic, policy, finance, corporate and operational decisions are based on robust evidence. We create a culture in which people are empowered with the data and information to make excellent decisions; using cutting edge tools, techniques and collaboration; putting evidence at the heart of the justice system. We are a multi-disciplinary team of around 300 staff that sits at the heart of the Ministry of Justice providing analytical support across a diverse and exciting agenda. We work in a dynamic and fast-paced context and our skills are in heavy demand across the Ministry of Justice. Our collaborations beyond government are seen as ground-breaking. The Analysis community is made up of analysts and specialists including: Social Researchers, Economists, Operational Researchers, Statisticians, Data Engineers, Data Scientists and other data specialists (such as data strategists, data dissemination, generalists and assurance experts). Why work in the Analysis Directorate? In the Analysis Directorate, we want all our people to feel valued for who they are and for the work they do. We provide a warm, inclusive place to work and offer a wide range of flexibilities and benefits as part of our people offer to reward our staff.

    The national salary range is £35,335 - £37,847, London salary range is £40,014 - £42,859. Your salary will be dependent on your base location, The MoJ offers a range of benefits: Annual Leave Annual leave is 25 days on appointment and will increase to 30 days after five years' service. There is also a scheme to allow qualifying staff to buy or sell up to three days leave each year. Additional paid time off for public holidays and 1 privilege day. Leave for part-time and job share posts will be calculated on a pro-rata basis. Pension The Civil Service offers a choice of pension schemes, giving you the flexibility to choose the pension that suits you best. Training The Ministry of Justice is committed to staff development and offers an extensive range of training and development opportunities. Networks The opportunity to join employee-run networks that have been established to provide advice and support and to enable the views of employees from minority groups to be expressed direct to senior management. There are currently networks for employees of minority ethnic origin, employees with disabilities, employees with caring responsibilities, women employees, and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender employees. Eligibility Staff on fixed term appointments must have been recruited through fair and open competition. Vacancies advertised "cross-government" are only open to all Civil Service employees and employees of accredited non-departmental public bodies (NDPBs) who were appointed on merit following a fair and open competition; or were appointed to a permanent post through an exception in the Civil Service Commissioners' rules. Support
  • A range of 'Family Friendly' policies such as opportunities to work reduced hours or job share.
  • Access to flexible benefits such as voluntary benefits, retail vouchers and discounts on a range of goods and services.
  • For moves to or from another employer or moves across the Civil Service this can have implications on your eligibility to carry on claiming childcare vouchers. You may however be eligible for alternative government childcare support schemes, including Tax Free Childcare. More information can be found on www.www.GOV.UK or Childcare Choices. You can determine your eligibility at https://www.childcarechoices.gov.uk/.
  • Paid paternity, adoption and maternity leave.
  • Free annual sight tests for employees who use computer screens.
    • Working for the Civil Service The Civil Service Code sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

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https://www.jobs24.co.uk/job/heo-civil-family-court-forecasting-127669016

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